Book Launch: Uncertainty Deconstructed: We Should Have Seen It Coming
When:
—
Venue:
Birkbeck 43 Gordon Square
Uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of foresight, imagination, and vision; as well as an unwillingness to think about the maverick or unthinkable – good and bad - and be ready for it or take advantage of it.
We are delighted to welcome Dr Bruce Garvey and Dowshan Humzah to Birkbeck to celebrate their book; 'Uncertainty Deconstructed: A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners'. The book aims to support practitioners in making judgments in uncertain circumstances.
Join us on Wednesday 19 October for this in-conversation with the authors to discuss the key topics of uncertainty and decision-making.
Itinerary
6.00pm Welcome and Introductions
6.10pm In conversation with Dr Bruce Garvey and Dowshan Humzah
6.35pm Q&A from the audience
6.45pm Drinks Reception in the Keynes Library
7.30pm END
Book abstract
'Uncertainty Deconstructed: A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners’ argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders. The term "unknown – unknowns" is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category.
To better understand uncertainty, we must deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed: 1) What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? 2) What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? 3) What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the webinar a useful guide.
'Uncertainty Deconstructed: A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners' is published by Springer Publishing and is available to pre-order now.
About the Authors
Dr Bruce Garvey advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to technological foresight, creativity and innovation, futures, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties, based on his research at Imperial College London, (UK). He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East.
Dowshan Humzah is an independent director and strategic advisor. He has delivered transformative business growth, industry firsts and digital innovation, having held executive roles with RSA Insurance, Virgin Media, Orange, P&G and four start-ups. As a non-executive, he focuses on board composition and cognitive diversity. His directorships include Board Apprentice Global, Gresham College and Overcoming MS.
Storm Le Roux is principal of SCNiiC. He led the Aerospace and Climate Neutrality Initiative, resulting in the launch in 2018 of SCNiiC – Sustainability Climate Neutrality Impact Investment Consultancy – a specialist advisor on net zero finance, technology and decision-making under deep uncertainty. He graduated in science and engineering from the University of Stellenbosch.
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