Prof Robert Northcott
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Overview
Overview
Biography
I began at Birkbeck in the summer of 2011, and from 2017 to 2020 was Head of Department. Before that, I taught for six years at the University of Missouri-St Louis. I received my PhD from the London School of Economics. Before switching to philosophy, I did graduate work in economics, receiving an MSc, and undergraduate work in mathematics and history.
Away from academia, I have won money at tournaments in poker, pool, and foosball/table football. In my LSE days, I was captain of the University Challenge TV quiz team, reaching the grand final. More recently, I made my first ever hole-in-one in golf and also at last began to break 80.
Web profiles
Professional activities
Honorary Secretary, British Society for the Philosophy of Science
ORCID
0000-0001-8791-8364 -
Research
Research
Research overview
I am currently working on a book, tentatively titled 'Science in a Fragile World', about how to investigate a world in which laws and causal relations are intermittent and unpredictable. I think that:
1) Much of our world is like this, especially once we venture outside the confines of laboratories and engineered artefacts. It includes many of the issues that we care most about: war, environmental damage, pandemics, elections, and more.
2) These issues need to be investigated by historian-like detailed case studies. Unfortunately, familiar methods such as experiments are less useful, because their results cannot be relied on to generalize. There is a premium on accurate prediction, even though (in fact because) in messy cases it is difficult. Broadly speaking, I argue for more emphasis on local empirical work and less on development of abstract theory.
This book project is the culmination of a longstanding interest in how knowledge is produced in these messy cases. What is the relation between the theoretical development of abstract models, and progress in terms of better predictions and explanations of real-world events? When can we rest content with after-the-fact explanation, and when should we insist instead on accurate prediction? What kind of knowledge do we really have if we can't predict well?
Although my research is mainly in philosophy of science, I have also written extensively on related themes in metaphysics, especially the notions of causation and causal explanation. These various strands connect when, for instance, analysing the use of statistical techniques to measure causation. I have also applied some of this causal training to debates around several other philosophical issues, including scientific progress, harm, innateness, and free will.
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Supervision and teaching
Supervision and teaching
Supervision
Current doctoral researchers
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MATTIAS AHLGREN
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RICHARD URWIN
Teaching
Teaching modules
- Research in Theoretical Philosophy (SSPL157S7)
- Research in Practical Philosophy (SSPL158S7)
- Knowledge and Reality (SSPL234S4)
- Evolution, Science and Morality (Level 5) (SSPL247S5)
- Evolution, Science and Morality (Level 7) (SSPL249S7)
- Philosophy of Science (Level 5) (SSPL285S5)
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Publications
Publications
Article
- Diener, E. and Northcott, Robert and Zyphur, M. and West, S. (2022) Beyond experiments. Perspectives on Psychological Science 17 (4), pp. 1101-1119. ISSN 1745-6916.
- Northcott, Robert (2022) Reflexivity and fragility. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 12 (43), ISSN 1879-4912.
- Northcott, Robert (2022) Pandemic modeling, good and bad. Philosophy of Medicine 3 (1), ISSN 2692-3963.
- Northcott, Robert (2021) Pre-emption cases may support, not undermine, the counterfactual theory of causation. Synthese 198, pp. 537-555. ISSN 0039-7857.
- Northcott, Robert and Alexandrova, A. and Wright, J. (2021) Back to the big picture. Journal of Economic Methodology 28 (1), pp. 54-59. ISSN 1350-178X.
- Northcott, Robert (2019) Big data and prediction: four case studies. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A ISSN 0039-3681.
- Northcott, Robert (2019) Prediction versus accommodation in economics. Journal of Economic Methodology 26 (1), pp. 59-69. ISSN 1350-178X.
- Northcott, Robert (2019) Free will is not a testable hypothesis. Erkenntnis 84, pp. 617-631. ISSN 0165-0106.
- Northcott, Robert (2018) The efficiency question in economics. Philosophy of Science 85 (5), pp. 1140-1151. ISSN 0031-8248.
- Northcott, Robert (2018) Conceived this way: innateness defended. Philosophers Imprint 18 (18), pp. 1-16. ISSN 1533-628X.
- Northcott, Robert (2017) When are purely predictive models best?. Disputatio 9 (47), pp. 631-656. ISSN 0873-626X.
- Northcott, Robert (2016) A dilemma for the Doomsday Argument. Ratio 29 (3), pp. 268-282. ISSN 0034-0006.
- Northcott, Robert (2015) Opinion polling and election predictions. Philosophy of Science 82 (5), pp. 1260-1271. ISSN 0031-8248.
- Northcott, Robert (2015) Harm and causation. Utilitas 27 (2), pp. 147-164. ISSN 0953-8208.
- Alexandrova, A. and Northcott, Robert (2013) It's just a feeling: why economic models do not explain. Journal of Economic Methodology 20 (3), pp. 262-267. ISSN 1350-178X.
- Northcott, Robert (2013) Verisimilitude: a causal approach. Synthese 190 (9), pp. 1471-1488. ISSN 0039-7857.
- Northcott, Robert (2012) Degree of explanation. Synthese ISSN 0039-7857.
- Northcott, Robert (2010) Natural-born determinists: a new defense of causation as probability-raising. Philosophical Studies 150 (1), pp. 1-20. ISSN 0031-8116.
- Northcott, Robert (2010) Walsh on causes and evolution. Philosophy of Science 77 (3), pp. 457-467. ISSN 0031-8248.
- Northcott, Robert (2009) Is actual difference making Robert Northcott actually different?. Journal of Philosophy 106 (11), pp. 629-634. ISSN 0022-362X.
- Northcott, Robert (2009) On Lewis, Schaffer and the non-reductive evaluation of counterfactuals. Theoria 75 (4), pp. 336-343. ISSN 1755-2567.
- Northcott, Robert (2008) Causation and contrast classes. Philosophical Studies 139 (1), pp. 111-123. ISSN 0031-8116.
- Northcott, Robert (2008) Can ANOVA measure causal strength?. Quarterly Review of Biology 83 (1), pp. 47-55. ISSN 0033-5770.
- Northcott, Robert (2008) Weighted explanations in history. Philosophy of the Social Sciences 38 (1), pp. 76-96. ISSN 0048-3931.
- Northcott, Robert (2006) Causal efficacy and the analysis of variance. Biology & Philosophy 21 (2), pp. 253-276. ISSN 0169-3867.
- Northcott, Robert (2005) Comparing apples with oranges. Analysis 65 (1), pp. 12-18. ISSN 0003-2638.
- Northcott, Robert (2005) Pearson's wrong turning: against statistical measures of causal efficacy. Philosophy of Science 72 (5), pp. 900-912. ISSN 0031-8248.
Book Review
- Northcott, Robert and Alexandrova, A. (2004) 'The Scientific Study of Society', by Max Steuer, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003, xiii + 464 pages.
Book Section
- Northcott, Robert (2023) Prediction, history, and political science. In: Kincaid, H. and Van Bouwel, J. (eds.) Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Political Science. Oxford Handbooks. Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780197519806. (In Press)
- Northcott, Robert (2021) Economic theory and empirical science. In: Heilmann, C. and Reiss, J. (eds.) The Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Economics. Routledge Handbooks in Philosophy. Routledge. ISBN 9781138824201. (In Press)
- Northcott, Robert and Alexandrova, A. (2015) Prisoner's dilemma doesn't explain much. In: Peterson, M. (ed.) The Prisoner's Dilemma. Classic Philosophical Arguments. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. pp. 64-84. ISBN 9781107621473.
- Northcott, Robert (2012) Genetic traits and causal explanation. In: Plaisance, K.S. and Reydon, T.A.C. (eds.) Philosophy of Behavioral Biology. Boston Studies in Philosophy of Science. London, UK: Springer. pp. 65-82. ISBN 9789400719507.
- Northcott, Robert (2012) How necessary are randomized controlled trials?. In: Munson, R. (ed.) Intervention and Reflection: Basic Issues in Bioethics (9th Edition). Independence, U.S.: Cengage. pp. 187-191. ISBN 9781133587149.
- Northcott, Robert (2012) Partial explanations in social science. In: Kincaid, H. (ed.) The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science. Oxford Handbooks in Philosophy. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. pp. 130-153. ISBN 9780195392753.
- Northcott, Robert (2010) Bad luck or the ref's fault?. In: Richards, T. (ed.) Soccer and Philosophy: Beautiful Thoughts on the Beautiful Game. Popular Culture and Philosophy. Chicago, USA: Open Court. pp. 319-326. ISBN 9780812696769.
- Northcott, Robert and Alexandrova, A. (2009) Progress in economics. In: Kincaid, H. and Ross, D. (eds.) Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics. Oxford Handbooks. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. pp. 306-337. ISBN 9780195189254.
- Northcott, Robert (2006) The irrational game: why there's no perfect system. In: Bronson, E. (ed.) Poker and Philosophy: Pocket Rockets and Philosopher Kings. Chicago, USA: Open Court Publishing Company. pp. 105-115. ISBN 9780812695941.